The MVP race is shaping up around the NFL’s top four quarterbacks. But there are so many good and complex storylines developing at the position across the NFL: QBs with new life, QBs with a dying future, QBs without an answer. So let’s dive in.
In these rankings, I’m focused on monitoring the fluctuations of a QB’s performance throughout the season. No one — not even Drake Maye — is safe at the top. No one — not even Kirk Cousins — is stuck at the bottom. There is room for quick ascent — and rapid decline. One question holds most important: What have you done for your team lately?
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Will the Vikings run it back with J.J. McCarthy as their starter in 2026? (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)
When you look at the passing numbers — 144 passing yards and an interception — it’s hard to believe that this was the type of win that could make the organization believe he’s The Guy. And maybe it didn’t. But it was the type of win that probably bought Shough another year. Given his draft status (40th overall), the progress Shough has made and the raw tools he has as a thrower, he will almost certainly go into next year as New Orleans’ starting QB.
Now, does that have a bit to do with what else is out there? Sure. Fernando Mendoza is a fun prospect, but he’s not up to par with Cam Ward, much less the top of the 2024 class that stunned the NFL. The Saints don’t need to spend a high pick (or trade a package to move up) when Shough is clearly worth more due diligence.
Shough does have a bit of Jalen Hurts to him. He rushed for 55 yards and two touchdowns against Tampa, after all. Who knows if that style of play earns him a second contract under coach Kellen Moore? But for now, it got the Saints an upset over the Bucs. It bought Shough more time. And it gave a glimmer of an identity for an otherwise rudderless Saints team.
The offense was already stumbling around Jones, largely because he was playing with a broken leg. Now, after tearing his Achilles (which he can’t play through), the Colts are in a free fall. It’s wild to think Jones was once in line to get a long-term extension with Indy. It’s wild to think about what the terms of that contract might look like when compared to when the Colts signed him this past offseason. As he rehabs this spring, will they offer him a deal at all?
There were ways Jones and the Colts could’ve battled their way out of this late-season regression. Jones was struggling against pressure, particularly on third down. But he and Indy had enough talent to work their way into the playoffs despite this recent and disappointing offensive run. Would, coulda, shoulda. The injury halted all imaginations of a Jones bounce back amid his comeback tour.
There’s no saying what’s next for the Colts, who have roughly a 50-50 shot at the playoffs (but … come on, it’s probably much worse than that without Jones). And there’s no saying what’s next for Jones, who will be a free agent but a far less desirable one than we would’ve thought after eight weeks of the season.
Maybe he and Indy can come to an agreement, simply because his asking price is sure to plummet. But even if the Colts stick with him in 2026, can they stomach sticking with him alone? Would they open the door for Anthony Richardson to take back the starting job? Would they draft another quarterback? Would they sign another veteran?
It’s going to be an absolute mess for the Colts to sort out this offseason. And if they miss the playoffs, it might not be coach Shane Steichen’s mess to sort.
Aaron Rodgers had his best game of the season in Week 14. Did he figure something out or was it a fleeting moment in what might be the last year of his career? (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)
Lawrence has long been a quarterback who toys with electricity, on the verge of lighting up the place — or burning it down.
Maybe that’s beginning to change. I think receiver Jakobi Meyers has a lot to do with that.
And it should come as little surprise that Meyers has changed the complexion of this offense. Meyers has quietly had that effect on multiple offenses during his career, including in New England, where Meyers helped Mac Jones look like a competent (and up-and-coming) starter.
Since joining the Jaguars, Meyers has had first downs on 16 of his 22 catches (72.7%) and a success rate of 64.5%, the highest of his career. That’s staggeringly helpful for a quarterback.
This isn’t to take away from what Lawrence did this past Sunday. The Jaguars QB had his most complete performance of his career, playing with a level of consistency (from throw to throw) that has been sorely lacking throughout his career. (Which is crazy because he completed just 56.7% of his passes in pouring rain.) But it’s hard to imagine that Meyers’ presence in the offense has nothing to do with Lawrence’s newfound consistency.
Each game that Meyers gets more involved, the throw-your-hands-up-and-yell-at-the-screen mistakes have come fewer and further between for Lawrence. And for Brian Thomas Jr. who has had a woeful season but had his best game in weeks.
The Buccaneers didn’t seem to take the Saints seriously. Mayfield committed a handful of unforced errors. His receivers weren’t particularly sharp either. The passing offense, as a whole, found itself regularly missing opportunities it would normally convert.
The problem is that the Buccaneers haven’t looked like themselves for a while now. They nearly lost to the lowly Arizona Cardinals, and they did lose to both the Los Angeles Rams and the Buffalo Bills. Tampa is sputtering heading into its massive matchups against the Carolina Panthers, who could use those two games to springboard into the playoffs.
Mayfield hasn’t been great — but he needs more help than he’s getting.
It’s clear Emeka Egbuka has struggled since getting ample attention as the team’s top receiver. The rookie WR has eclipsed 100 yards in just one of the past eight games. He has also failed to eclipse 50 yards in the past four games. Drops have plagued him in recent weeks. Receiver Chris Godwin looks like an old guy coming back from injury. And it’s likely Mike Evans will look the same, if/when he comes back.
Throughout his time in Tampa, Mayfield has had an enviable supporting cast that he maximizes to perfection. Now, as he plays through a sprain in his non-throwing shoulder, he might have to lift the team even more than he did in the first half of the season.
Bo Nix has continually done just enough to complement the Broncos’ dominating defense. But can he do more down the stretch if called upon? (Photo by Chris Unger/Getty Images)
This is what it looks like when an offense is spiraling.
No one can figure out how to lift the other guy.
No one can figure out what, exactly, is the source of the issue. Because it’s … everything.
Mahomes had moments of brilliance against the Houston Texans, but his second interception was a truly awful decision (heaving toward a matchup where the cornerback had excellent position) and his first interception was, at the very least, an inadvisable throw (zipping it into a tight window where the cornerback also had good position).
But his third interception was one where everything needed to go right — but nothing did. Not only was Mahomes’ throw about six inches off target, but tight end Travis Kelce was late to get his hands out for the catch. He dropped the ball, and popped it up into the air for the Texans defense.
The small mistakes added up. On this play. In this game. On the season.
Last season, it was those same little details that helped the Chiefs win, particularly in those close games. The coaching staff isn’t helping this team. That’ll likely be where Andy Reid and Brett Veach look to make a change when the season is over.
But the players aren’t making plays either — not even Mahomes. And so this week, he had one of the worst games of his career, at one of the most important moments of the season. His receivers dropped four balls. Mahomes and the Chiefs have just a 15% chance of making the playoffs, per Next Gen Stats. And given that they’ll enter the offseason at roughly $43 million over the cap, this tired, old team is going to have a hard time undergoing the gut renovation its roster might need.
He never had much of a shot at getting the Bengals into the playoffs after his absence due to injury. But it has been refreshing to see him get after it over these past two weeks and show the AFC how lucky they are not to have Cincinnati in the playoff field.
Burrow is just so good, particularly when complemented by this group of pass-catchers. The Bengals have the purely talented combo of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, just a delightful breadth of skills for a WR1a and WR1b. Cincy also has tight end Mike Gesicki, whose rapport with Burrow is second to none. Chase Brown has showed an aptitude for the pass-catching game since Burrow’s return. And Noah Fant and Samaje Perine show up for big plays here and there.
I think I know what you’re thinking: Didn’t Burrow’s interceptions sink the Bengals this week?
Well, yes, they did. The first interception, in particular, was just a massive lapse in execution. And it cost the Bengals the game. But it’s not Burrow who is costing the Bengals a shot at the postseason. The Bengals have done that all by themselves. Here’s hoping someday Cincy will return to the postseason — and maybe even the Super Bowl.
Love’s interceptions will be the great mystery of the universe.
He is the picture of efficiency and explosiveness. He seems to see the field so well. And then he makes one pass that everyone rookie QB would know not to attempt. It’s not even that he’s playing aggressively and overestimating himself. It’s almost like he doesn’t see the defensive player that he’s throwing the ball to. Maybe he sees them in a different jersey.
I don’t know.
What I know is that those inexplicable plays aren’t enough to drag down his incredible season. He’s thrown as many touchdowns (22) as he has interceptions (four) and sacks (18) combined, as noted by ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky. And since I waxed poetic about Meyers’ role in helping Lawrence in Jacksonville, I think it’s important to note the way Christian Watson has helped Love in Green Bay. Watson missed the first six games of the season, and when he returned, he instantly opened up the offense. I didn’t peg this as being Watson’s breakout season, given that the Packers just drafted Matthew Golden, a speedy guy who seemed to overlap in a number of ways with Watson. But that speaks to Watson’s talent and resilience. And it speaks to the nice ways Love and Watson complement one another.
We saw on both touchdowns the way Love found Watson downfield despite the Bears’ blitz. And we saw the way Watson took a good throw and converted it into a big touchdown.
Before joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.
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