Samsung’s unveiling of its first trifold smartphone marks another escalation in the foldables arms race – and another moment where Apple is conspicuously absent.
Huawei beat Samsung to the trifold punch last year. Now Samsung is striking back. Meanwhile, Apple – the company that usually defines the high end of the smartphone market – still hasn’t released a single folding device. That may change in September next year if persistent supply-chain whispers prove accurate. But by then, Android manufacturers will already be on their second generation of tri-folding gadgets.
So, is Apple embarrassingly late? Or strategically patient?
There’s no question that Samsung, Huawei, Xiaomi and others have iterated quickly. Samsung, especially, has turned folding phones into a mainstream talking point through the Galaxy Z Flip and Fold lines. And now comes the era of trifolds – a category Apple hasn’t even entered at the basic fold level.
The risk for Apple is perception. By the time a folding iPhone arrives, foldables may already be seen as familiar, even mature technology – not the kind of once-in-a-generation leap the company prefers to associate itself with.
And there are technical reasons to believe Apple didn’t leap soon enough. Foldables have improved significantly in crease visibility, hinge reliability and durability. Screens are brighter, thinner and tougher than they were even two years ago. The software, too, has become more adaptive and tablet-like. If the hardware and UX are reaching acceptable maturity now, it’s fair to ask: why didn’t Apple arrive earlier?
Because foldables are still a niche.
A niche
The global smartphone market moves well over a billion units annually; foldables made up roughly 1-2% of that in the last full year of sales, according to some estimates. Even with aggressive growth forecasts, the category is nowhere near mass-market momentum. Prices remain punishing – often R35 000 to R50 000 and beyond – and many consumers remain strongly attached to the familiar “slab of glass” design.
In other words: Apple hasn’t been late; the market has been early.
Apple almost never enters a category before it’s confident the product can hit its quality metrics, margins and scale. Think about 5G: Apple arrived years after Android, and the iPhone 12 still sold in staggering numbers. Think about wireless charging, OLED, styluses, large screens – Apple waits until the supply chain is ready to meet its volume and quality demands.
Read: Samsung’s first trifold smartphone is here
Foldable screens still fail more often than conventional ones. Hinges still gather dust. And creases still exist. These are the sort of compromises Apple is famously allergic to.
If CEO Tim Cook introduces a folding iPhone next September, it will be because Apple believes it can finally ship something that will not embarrass the brand.
Samsung promotional video on making the Galaxy Z Trifold
But will folding phones ever be more than a niche?
It’s the billion-dollar question. Foldables undeniably provide more screen in your pocket, and trifold designs push this even further. They’re engineering marvels. But engineering marvels do not necessarily become mass-market hits.
The core issue is simple: most people are deeply satisfied with the phone they already know. A slim rectangle of glass is practical, predictable, durable and relatively affordable. Battery life is good. Apps are optimised. Cases are cheap. The experience is stable.
A folding device, by contrast, introduces more moving parts; a higher chance of mechanical failure; a thicker and heavier body; worse battery life; and a far higher price. Most significantly, foldables solve problems that many people don’t feel they have.
There is a big push in the industry to find new form factors – trifolds, rollables, dual-screens, clamshells – but so far, consumers haven’t shown huge interest. The smartphone is a mature product in a saturated market, and maturity often favours the familiar.
But what if the next big thing isn’t a phone at all? This is where the conversation gets interesting.
AI-first hardware
While phone manufacturers race to make phones fold more ways than origami, a parallel trend is emerging: AI-first hardware. Devices like the Humane AI Pin and the Rabbit R1 are flawed early experiments, but they point to a deeper question: if AI becomes the primary interface, do we still need a sheet of glass in our pockets?
Imagine a wearable that understands context, sees what you see, and retrieves or generates information on the fly. Imagine the iPhone moment of 2007 but in reverse: a shift away from screens. If generative AI becomes the central computing layer, the hardware could shrink, diversify and disappear into clothing, glasses, earbuds or ambient computing surfaces.
Read: Honor’s ultra-thin foldable sets new bar ahead of Samsung reveal
This could explain why Apple isn’t rushing. Its biggest long-term bet may not be on a foldable iPhone, but on something post-iPhone: Vision Pro-type spatial devices, AI-infused AirPods or entirely new personal computing categories.
So, was Apple smart to wait? Probably.
Foldables are exciting, but still niche. Trifolds look futuristic but target a sliver of the market. Apple will sell tens of millions of folding iPhones when it eventually launches one – but not necessarily because foldables are the future but because anything with the word “iPhone” on it sells.
The real question isn’t whether Apple is late. It’s whether foldables themselves will ever break out – or whether the next true innovation will “think”, not fold. – © 2025 NewsCentral Media
- The author, Duncan McLeod, is editor of TechCentral
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