Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, Mass.) — You saw the Buffalo Bills take down the Patriots in New England. You saw the Denver Broncos beat the Green Bay Packers in a cross-conference matchup that might’ve been a Super Bowl preview. You saw the Los Angeles Rams remind everyone who’s the NFL’s best team with a win over the Detroit Lions.
So let’s try to spin it forward, dive deeper and think outside the box about what we witnessed in Week 15. This is “Sound Smart,” where we prepare you for Monday morning with seven observations from the Sunday slate. If I do my job, you’ll be fluent in the NFL’s Week 15 action.
1. IF THERE’S ONLY ONE THING YOU SHOULD KNOW FROM SUNDAY …
Josh Allen stole Drake Maye’s MVP moment
For the longest time, people have compared Josh Allen to Patrick Mahomes, starting from when they were draft prospects with comparable howitzer arms and continuing through their epic postseason battles as NFL veterans.
But with Mahomes winning as many Super Bowls as he has, it’s easy to see where they’re different.
And after Sunday’s game, we can see now where Josh Allen and Drake Maye — two players also often compared — are different. All those comparisons between Allen and Maye were in the name of career projection. What could Maye be? Maybe: Allen.
Josh Allen hugs Drake Maye after the game at Gillette Stadium on Sunday. (Photo by Kathryn Riley/Getty Images)
It’s still a projection.
“I don’t know, I like 17,” Bills defensive end A.J. Epenesa said after Allen led Buffalo’s 35-31 comeback win in Foxborough on Sunday.
When asked about comparisons between the two QBs, Epenesa added with a smile: “I think they’re both quarterbacks.”
Both quarterbacks — inarguable.
Liking Allen more than Maye, that’s … probably also inarguable.
Patriots receiver Mack Hollins, who has played with both QBs, wouldn’t touch the topic with a 78-inch wingspan (which Allen has).
“I don’t really watch their offense. I watch ours,” Hollins said.
But you saw the score changing — the way Allen took back the lead.
“Yeah, we lost. At the end of the day, that’s all that matters,” Hollins said.
In the Bills-Patriots Week 15 matchup, Maye had multiple opportunities to produce an MVP moment, whether it was the fourth-quarter, 2-minute drive when he could have taken the lead (but failed to convert a fourth down, effectively ending the game) — or whether it was simply holding onto New England’s early three-touchdown lead by staying steady through Buffalo’s comeback.
Maye couldn’t get it done.
Allen snatched away that MVP moment.
In turn, the Bills kept the Patriots from clinching the AFC title — for now. And Allen may have pushed past past Maye in the MVP hunt.
“As long as there is time on the clock, we always got a chance. Tonight, it was no different,” Bills receiver Khalil Shakir told me. “The guy we have leading our team is unbelievable. We just keep going, keep throwing punches, keep throwing bows. And then the score speaks for itself.”
The score said a whole lot. And so did Allen getting sick on the sideline. He threw up late in the game, which is — the QB said — something that happens just about every game.
“Him puking is kind of a good sign for us,” tackle Spencer Brown said. “It’s like, ‘This guy just emptied the tank, and he’s putting it all out there for us.’”
Literally.
The Bills’ passing game didn’t come alive until late in the game, so Allen reverted to doing whatever he could to pick up yards. That included lowering his shoulder and practically seeking out contact — which led to him coming up limping after one of the tackles.
“I wish I knew what I was thinking,” Allen said when asked about all the contact.
And he wasn’t hurt?
“No, all good,” he said.
He played with the type of desperation that has infuriated defenses for the past few years.
“Of course, that’s what 1-7 do,” running back James Cook said.
By the end of the game, however, Allen found receivers and tight ends in the passing game. He showed a well-rounded and dominant side of the Bills’ offense that was as impressive as any performance we’ve seen from Buffalo this year. He finished the game with 193 passing yards and three touchdowns with 51 rushing yards.
Buffalo might just be the most dangerous team in the AFC in the playoffs. And it’s all because of what we saw on Sunday. Allen will beat you when he has to. Allen will beat you when he’s desperate. And historically, the only exception to that rule is Patrick Mahomes, who won’t be in the playoffs this year after the Chiefs were eliminated from the postseason.
Allen might win another MVP. Allen might even win another AFC East title. But more important to him, he might win a Super Bowl.
“We’ve found sustained success but never been able to punch our ticket to the Super Bowl,” Allen said. “That’s every team’s dream, and our goal is not just to win AFC East. You’ve got to get into the playoffs to give yourself a chance to win a Super Bowl. So that’s what we’re trying to do.”
2. PLAYOFF PICTURE: DO THE BRONCOS DESERVE THE SAME RESPECT AS THE RAMS?
The Denver Broncos have a 69% chance of landing in the AFC’s No. 1 seed, with the Patriots and Jaguars lingering at 10%, per Next Gen Stats. The Los Angeles Rams have a 58% chance, with the next best team (Seattle) sitting at 26%.
When it comes to the No. 1 seed in each conference, is one No. 1 seed not like the other?
The Rams are the darling. They have Sean McVay. They have Matthew Stafford. They have Puka Nacua and Jared Verse. They even have an up-and-coming defensive coordinator in Chris Shula. They’ve beaten a ton of good teams and walloped the Detroit Lions on Sunday. They’re the obvious and overwhelming Super Bowl favorite to come out of the NFC.
But the Broncos? Right now, they’re nobody’s darling. Their defense is incredible, but the team is still -1 in the turnover differential on the year after this week. Coach Sean Payton was once the McVay of his time — but Payton is now 61 years old. Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph failed as a head coach, so maybe he doesn’t get the respect he deserves as DC. Bo Nix might be a system quarterback, but he also has 22 wins in his first two seasons, tied with Ben Roethlisberger, Andrew Luck and Dak Prescott for most wins in a QB’s first two seasons. That’s good company.
And yet no one is talking about Nix like he’s comparable to those guys. And no one is talking about the Broncos like a legit No. 1 seed.
I think I know why. And it boils down to the following scenario.
Imagine: It’s the fourth quarter of the AFC Championship Game. It’s a close game. Allen and the Bills have the ball down by one score against the Broncos’ defense.
Who are you taking?
I’m taking the Bills. Because of Allen. I think most people would.
3. WHAT EVERYONE ELSE IS AFRAID TO SAY:
The Chiefs may have missed the playoffs this year — and Patrick Mahomes might have suffered an ACL injury — but they will be back in the playoffs next year.
Sunday’s stranger-than-fiction moment came when Mahomes suffered his ACL tear, in his eighth NFL season — and in that same game, the Chiefs were mathematically eliminated from the postseason.
In Tom Brady’s eighth season, he also tore his ACL. It ended up being the only season when the New England Patriots missed the playoffs with Brady on the roster.
There are key differences, including that the Patriots lost Brady at the beginning of the season. And the Chiefs lost Mahomes at the end of a game when their playoff chances were already dwindling. But it’s a reminder of the strange parallels between the two quarterbacks.
I don’t think that Mahomes will win as many Super Bowls as Brady. But I do think Mahomes’ career will continue to follow Brady’s. And that means the Chiefs and Mahomes will return to the postseason next year — and for many years to come.
Will Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs rise again like Tom Brady did after his torn ACL? (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
This dynasty isn’t over. Mahomes hasn’t somehow forgotten how to play. And the game hasn’t passed Andy Reid by. Certainly Mahomes’ injury will complicate the idea that the Chiefs can come back next year revitalized by a full offseason. Because while they finally get a few extra months off, Mahomes will spend his offseason rehabbing. And Chiefs GM Brett Veach will rehab the team’s roster, now slated to be $43 million over the cap next year. His first order of business will be replacing tight end Travis Kelce — because even if he comes back for another year, the Chiefs will need a weapon to achor their passing offense.
But I believe in that core: Mahomes, Reid and Veach. The Chiefs are going to compete in the playoffs next year. And in the next five years, they’re going to play in another Super Bowl.
4. LOST MY TRUST & EARNED MY TRUST
Earned my trust: Colst coach Shane Steichen, GM Chris Ballard and, yes, QB Philip Rivers
Maybe Philip Rivers looked something like Jared Lorenzen on Sunday. And maybe Rivers is 44 years old — and not a particularly spry 44 years old at that. But that was a damn good effort from the Colts on Sunday.
This had the potential to be a total circus. Rivers could’ve been atrocious.
He wasn’t. The former high school football coach was perfectly fine.
“I think of my sons and those ballplayers that I was in charge of at the school that they’ll say, ‘Well, crap, Coach wasn’t scared,'” Rivers said after the Colts lost to the Seahawks 18-16. “Like, shoot, there is doubt. The guaranteed safe bet is to not go for it. And I hope in that sense that it can be a positive to some young boys — and some young people, not even just young boys.”
Did the Colts win? No. But they were competitive against one of the best four teams in the NFL. The Colts looked better than they did last week with Daniel Jones and Riley Leonard at quarterback.
I genuinely wondered if the Colts might consider firing Steichen if Indy collapsed its way out of the playoffs, which now seems imminent. But if Rivers can help the Colts look mildly competent in these final four games (vs. SF, vs. JAC, @ HOU), then Steichen might be able to keep his job — and live to see 2026.
Also earned my trust: Titans DE Jeffrey Simmons
It’s not just that the star defender caught a touchdown. It’s that he did it in a scramble drill.
It’s the season of spreading joy. So, please, let me share this play with you.
While we’re at it, don’t miss the play where linebacker Kyle Van Noy, 24, handed off his interception to teammate and safety Alohi Gilman, 28, who returned it 85 yards for a touchdown. Clearly, Van Noy knew Gilman could take it the distance (and Van Noy couldn’t). I’ve never seen anything like it before in football.
Sharing is caring. Caring is joy. Joy is football. Football is life.
Lost my trust: The NFC South
The Falcons upset the Buccaneers on Thursday night, which offered the Panthers a clean and clear opportunity to take the lead in the divisional race. But of course, the Saints beat Carolina on Sunday.
And so the Bucs and Panthers are now both 7-7 with two matchups over the next two weeks.
The thing is, I don’t really care much who wins.
It’s hard to imagine either team winning a playoff game. No, this division will make the playoffs based only upon the divisional structure (which the NFL considered getting rid of this offseason) and not on their own merits.
The Buccaneers were once one of the hottest teams in football, but with their offense no longer lifting up their defense, Tampa isn’t a threat. Quarterback Baker Mayfield looks hurt and — because of the injury issues at guard — unable to get comfortable in the pocket. It’s easily his worst year of his Bucs’ tenure.
The Panthers are still a year away, with Bryce Young needing more incubation as a game manager and the defense still coming together. The team just feels young, most notably when Panthers safety Lathan Ransom committed an unsportsmanlike hit on Tyler Shough while he was sliding on the Saints’ final drive. That helped New Orleans get into gimme field-goal range. And man, Ransom’s penalty was as undisciplined and poorly timed as it gets.
5. STATS DON’T LIE — OR DO THEY?
Justin Herbert passes Patrick Mahomes for the second-most pass yards by a player in his first six NFL seasons all time. Peyton Manning is first.
Manning: 24,885
Herbert: 24,284
Mahomes: 24,241
There is something very wrong with the Chargers offense that goes beyond their offensive line woes. Coach Jim Harbaugh has been hyped about Herbert since arriving in L.A., but the Bolts’ passing offense is about as bland and boring as Harbaugh’s khakis. If not for running back Kimani Vidal, their rushing attack might be just as rough.
And it feels like Herbert has had to struggle and battle offensively since his first two seasons. So I suppose it’s all the more impressive that he’s put himself on this shortlist.
With Manning, Herbert has the advantage of the 17-game regular season, but even that doesn’t seem to explain how Herbert has done this. He has the advantage over Mahomes, who didn’t start during his rookie season. And still, I wouldn’t have guessed they were in the same stratosphere. Herbert has not thrown for over 4,000 passing yards since 2022, and he has not eclipsed 25 passing touchdowns since 2021.
Because their yardage is so comparable, let’s look at their total touchdowns through those six seasons. So far, Herbert has 173 (159 passing, 14 rushing). Mahomes had 204 (192 passing, 12 rushing). Perhaps that helps contextualize where there are some major differences.
6. MONDAY MORNING CONTROVERSY
Are the Patriots and Drake Maye pretenders?
Heading into the season, there weren’t many people expecting the Patriots to make the playoffs. If someone picked New England to win the division over Buffalo, it felt contrarian. So that’s important context as we consider the Patriots’ playoff berth.
Because, yeah, I think the Patriots could consider their season a success if they win even one playoff game. But do I think they’ll make it to the Super Bowl — or even the AFC Championship Game? No.
They don’t look ready for that. They’ve vastly surpassed expectations. They’ve made the most of a bad schedule, but the Big Bad Bills came into Foxborough and reminded everyone what it looks like when a legit contender finds their identity late in the regular season.
New England won’t pose a serious threat in the AFC, especially not after likely losing the No. 1 seed. So yes, in a sense, they’re pretenders. But that’s only if you got sucked into thinking they were real contenders.
Before joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.
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