You saw the Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Baltimore Ravens for the top spot in the AFC North. You saw Josh Allen outduel Joe Burrow to rally the Bills past the Bengals. You saw the Seahawks blow out yet another team — this time, the Falcons.
So let’s try to spin it forward, dive deeper and think outside the box about what we just saw. This is “Sound Smart,” where we prepare you for Monday morning with seven observations from the Sunday slate. If I do my job, you’ll be fluent in the NFL’s Week 14 action.
1. IF THERE’S ONLY ONE THING YOU SHOULD KNOW FROM SUNDAY …
The Packers are contenders and the Bears are pretenders, after all.
There were questions about Green Bay back in November. Should Matt LaFleur give up playcalling? Might LaFleur be out of a job? But all that concern proved unfounded. Quarterback Jordan Love is among the NFL’s best. LaFleur is a good coach running a potentially great team. Oh, yeah — and that Micah Parsons trade? That was well worth it. He’s an incredible player that defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley is using in nightmarish ways.
But these Bears? Well, just last week, it felt like people were crowning them Super Bowl contenders. All that hype proved unfounded.
I wrote last week about how Caleb Williams wasn’t squeezing enough juice out of Ben Johnson’s offense. I sensed that, while it hadn’t yet proven an issue, it would. The Bears have had one of the easiest schedules in the league, and their crowning achievement is a win over the Philadelphia Eagles — who frankly might be pretenders, too.
This isn’t to hate on the Bears, who are ahead of schedule in their rebuild around Johnson and Williams. But the Bears’ young QB is still too erratic to be trustworthy. And the Bears’ final play from scrimmage, a fourth-and-1 from the Packers’ 14, proved as much.
Why?
The playcall itself worked. It might be risky to use the same play in a pressure situation in back-to-back weeks (the Bears converted this it for a touchdown versus the Eagles in Week 13). But you can’t fault Johnson’s call or his play’s design. Just like last week, Kmet was open. The problem was that, unlike last week, Williams was late to the throw — and he badly underthrew his receiver. To make matters worse, D.J. Moore was open underneath for a check down and a first down. And there’s even a chance Williams could have run for it if he’d committed to running it right away. It came down to the QB’s failed execution.
That’s the Caleb Williams experience. High highs. Low lows.
It might someday prove steadier. It really should, given how hard the Bears have said Williams is working behind the scenes. But for now, we saw that Williams isn’t yet mature enough to lead this team into the postseason.
2. MONDAY MORNING CONTROVERSIES
Part 1: With a playoff spot potentially on the line, it was(n’t) a catch!
When was the last time you debated: Was it a catch, or what is a catch?
Because this week, those debates will rage on — with yet another consequential chapter. On the Ravens’ penultimate drive against the Steelers, Baltimore seemingly took the lead, with officials ruling on the field that Isaiah Likely caught a touchdown. But upon review, they reversed the call.
Baltimore got one more drive, which they couldn’t turn into a touchdown. And the Steelers would’ve gotten one more drive, if the Ravens had scored. So this didn’t wholly determine the outcome of this game. But in the end, the Ravens lost. This non-catch was absolutely the game’s most consequential play.
“It’s just tough when the game’s in the refs’ hands,” Derrick Henry told reporters after the game. “We just got to be better.”
This officiating decision(/gaffe) greatly impacted the playoff standings. Baltimore went from a 76% chance of making the playoffs (with a win) to a 30% chance of making the playoffs now that they lost, per Next Gen Stats. The Steelers’ chances jumped from 18% (if they lost) to where they now stand: 65%.
So sadly, once again, we must all ask the NFL: What is a catch?
In this case, the officials made it clear after the game: He needed a third step to constitute a catch. Which makes sense — except that it only takes two steps to constitute a catch before a guy goes out of bounds.
Part 2: With the game on the line, Kevin Stefanski took the ball out of Shedeur Sanders’ hands
During many of the Browns’ red zone trips, they have taken quarterback Shedeur Sanders off the field and put running back Quinshon Judkins at QB in the wildcat formation.
It’s unorthodox. And so it’s also polarizing.
Some people — the conspiracy theorists out there — think coach Stefanski is trying to keep Sanders from scoring more touchdowns.
I believe that Stefanski is trying to protect Sanders. The red zone — particularly the low red zone (the 10-yard line or closer) — is one of the hardest places for a QB to play. It’s crowded, and it’s a real challenge when it comes to reading and picking apart defenses. So, yes, it keeps Sanders from throwing a touchdown. But it also keeps him from throwing an interception. That shields Sanders from criticism. Given that history, it’s not a major surprise that, on this two-point conversion, Stefanski decided to put the ball in Judkins’ hands.
But it’s also not a surprise that the decision has proven polarizing, particularly after it failed spectacularly when Judkins appeared to botch the play.
“That’s on me,” Stefanski said postgame. “I’m responsible for all of it.”
Stefanski’s decision worked in one way: Everyone is criticizing him following the play’s failure; if Sanders had been on the field and the Browns not converted, he likely would’ve received the criticism. So Stefanski shielded his young QB.
I just don’t think that was necessary at this point. This week, Sanders was solid, especially in the low red zone where he’d rushed for a touchdown and thrown for two — one to tight end David Njoku and the other to tight end Harold Fannin.
If Stefanski’s intentions were good (and he’s trying to protect Sanders), the coach went too far. And Stefanski’s decision led to the team’s 11th loss of the year — which might lead to his eventual departure from Cleveland.
3. WHAT EVERYONE ELSE IS AFRAID TO SAY:
The Patriots are going to humble Josh Allen next week.
Fresh off a big win over the Cincinnati Bengals, the Buffalo Bills are 9-4, and Allen has a real chance to put himself yet again into the MVP race. I don’t think he’ll win it, but he has 34 touchdowns (22 passing; 12 rushing) and needs a closer look for all the same reasons he won last year.
He’s Atlas, carrying the Bills Mafia on his shoulders.
That’s why Allen and the Bills are 1.5-point favorites. They won’t want to hand over the AFC East crown. And Allen is a special player who just showed up Burrow in a QB duel.
I’m here to tell you it’s going to look a lot different next week.
Drake Maye and the Patriots are about to hand it to the Bills. Home field advantage is a big part of that. Maye’s incredible season is another driving factor. But most of all, it’s the Patriots’ consistent defense and special teams behind coach Mike Vrabel. Too often, Allen really has to do it all for the Bills, and I’m not sure that he’ll be able to against a team that plays all 60 minutes in all three phases. Allen will try to do too much. We’ll see some turnovers. And New England will eke out a sweep over Buffalo on the season.
4. RANDOM RANKING
2025 head coaching hires
- Mike Vrabel: He took this organization from 4-13 to 11-2 (so far). His players love him.
- Liam Coen: He just took the No. 1 seed in the AFC South. You could make the case Coen is the top guy on this list, because … the Jaguars. I wouldn’t argue.
- Ben Johnson: For all of Williams’ raw talent, he presents a serious challenge for his head coach. This game served as a reminder of that. Johnson and Williams might someday be a special duo, but right now, the coach is working around his quarterback.
- Brian Schottenheimer: His outstanding offense cannot always overcome his spotty defense.
- Kellen Moore: This is a deeply untalented team that has three more wins than they should. But still, they’re 3-10.
- Aaron Glenn: I’m not sure how different Glenn is from his predecessor, Robert Saleh. Actually, I know how: Saleh’s defenses were way better — even before Glenn lost Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner.
- Pete Carroll: *sighs dramatically* Oh Pete, it’s over, buddy.
5. LOST MY TRUST & EARNED MY TRUST
Earned my trust: Bills CB Christian Benford
His 63-yard pick-six swung the Bills’ win probability from 16.2% to 77.0%, per Next Gen Stats. No play outside the final two minutes has triggered a bigger swing this season. This dude is a bona fide CB1, and yet I’m not sure anyone outside of Buffalo knows his name.
Benford allowed just two targets and no catches during his 16 snaps when matched up against Ja’Marr Chase on Sunday.
Be on the lookout for him when the playoffs roll around.
Lost my trust: Lions CB D.J. Reed
Let’s stay in the defensive back department. During the 13 snaps when Reed faced off against CeeDee Lamb, the Cowboys receiver caught all five of his targets for 105 yards. The only time Reed got relief was when Lamb left the game with an injury. It was not a good outing for Reed, who was the weakest link on Detroit’s defense.
6. PLAYOFF PICTURE: THESE 4 TEAMS ARE TOAST
The Indianapolis Colts: The Colts are about to go from 7-1 to missing the playoffs. It feels like a matter of time. Their playoff chances fell to 55% after their loss, per Next Gen Stats. But given Daniel Jones’ Achilles injury, Indy’s chances are obviously much, much worse. The Colts are at the Seahawks, host to the 49ers and then the Jaguars, and at the Texans. They could very easily lose every single one of those games — by a lot. If they miss the postseason, they’d be the second team in the past 25 years to miss the playoffs after starting 7-1.
Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens look unrecognizable. It starts with Lamar Jackson, who looked as labored as Aaron Rodgers running for a touchdown on Sunday afternoon. Jackson’s long list of injuries seem to be taking a toll on his ability to generate big plays. But this disappointing season is far, far, far from falling upon his shoulders. He’s actually the reason they stood a chance. Instead, look at the Ravens’ special teams, where they committed a penalty on a Steelers field goal attempt that led to a first down and, eventually, a Pittsburgh touchdown. Look at the busted coverage on Jaylen Warren’s 38-yard touchdown reception. Coach John Harbaugh hasn’t coached this team as well as he usually does. That much was abundantly clear against the Steelers. Now, the Ravens’ playoff chances are down to 33%.
Dallas Cowboys: The Thursday game always feels like it happened a year ago, but the Cowboys lost to the Lions, and it tanked their already small hopes (now 7%). Their offense has been so much fun to watch, but their defense has proved too inconsistent to contend. Jerry Jones will get the offseason to keep building on that side of the ball. And you can bet the George Pickens contract situation will be a saga.
Cincinnati Bengals: Going into this week, they never stood a real chance to make the postseason. But if you’re like me, you saw the Bengals go up 21-11 against the Bills, and you wondered: Could Joe Burrow somehow drag this team into the postseason? Well, shoot. No, he can’t. The Bengals’ playoff hopes are at 1%. In other words, it’s over. But here’s the good news. They have about $80 million in cap space this offseason. Here’s hoping they spend every dollar on their putrid defense.
7. STATS DON’T LIE — OR DO THEY?
DK Metcalf is the first Steelers players with 130+ receiving yards in a game since Week 17, 2023, per FOX Sports research. Who was that receiver? George Pickens.
If you looked at this metric, you’d think Pittsburgh basically replaced its former WR1 with another WR1. And all was well. To some degree, Metcalf has replaced Pickens — though not really in directly comparable ways. But all has not been well with the Steelers’ offense. That’s because they needed both Metcalf and Pickens. As soon as they traded Pickens, they were looking for a replacement and, even up to this week (when they signed Adam Thielen), their search continued. This offense is missing another threat.
Maybe their playoff chances have improved substantially this week, but we all know where this season is headed: one-and-done. Metcalf is a really good player, but with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, the Steelers needed a fully stocked supporting cast, and they couldn’t make that happen.
Before joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.
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