Among the many burning questions about Netflix‘s potential acquisition of Warner Bros. is: What would happen to HBO Max? Would customers continue to subscribe to both, or would it ultimately roll into Netflix?
At least immediately, Netflix has said HBO Max would continue as a separate entity — but makes no promises that it wouldn’t ultimately be consumed into Netflix. HBO becoming a tile on Netflix, just like Hulu being slowly taken over by Disney+, is a likely possibility.
But here’s one that no one seems to be asking: What about the linear HBO service? You know, the pioneering network that essentially ushered in the cable age when it launched in 1972? HBO, the channel that revolutionized “prestige TV” with “The Sopranos,” and everything that came after that?
Even if HBO as a brand survives this merger, the idea of HBO as a standalone enterprise may soon be history. And it would also pretty much double as the last nail in the coffin of “premium cable” as we knew it.
Already, Paramount has destroyed the one-vibrant Showtime brand — first, by killing the standalone Showtime app, and then even renaming to remaining linear channel to “Paramount + With Showtime.” Now, there’s no Showtime infrastructure to speak of, and the cabler’s last remaining shows — like the “Dexter” spinoffs and “Yellowjackets” — are instead promoted as Paramount+ originals. Showtime, a flagship premium cable network that first launched in 1976, may live on in bits of leftover branding in some corners of the media universe, but it’s mostly dead.
FX wasn’t officially a premium cable network since it’s free on basic cable, but it evolved into a “premium” brand, inspired by the success of HBO in delivering its own diet of high-end, quality fare. Like HBO, FX changed the programming game and for a moment made basic cable a hot place for creators to bring their passion projects, as did AMC during the “Mad Men” and “Breaking Bad” eras. FX still exists, but mostly as a tile on Hulu. Not all of FX’s fare airs on the linear channel — which now mostly schedules library movies and repeats. When people talk about “FX,” they’re not talking about the linear channel anymore. (Meanwhile, with the writing on the wall for linear, AMC has attempted to migrate its viewers to its AMC+ streamer, with mixed results.)
Among the smaller premium channels, MGM+ remains a linear/stream hybrid under Amazon ownership, while Starz also programs a linear suite of channels, even as it prefers to focus on its digital platform. But both would prefer you think of them as digital brands, not legacy TV channels.
And that brings us to HBO. Even under Warner Bros. Discovery, the pay cabler has been pulling back on its linear offerings: Earlier this year, the company shut down multiplex networks including HBO Family, ThrillerMax, MovieMax and OuterMax.
Those cuts came from a company with leadership that was rooted in cable. Imagine, now, how much patience Netflix’s Ted Sarandos might have for what’s left in the HBO linear stable. (The answer? Not much.) Sarandos and Netflix have never shown any interest in owning or operating linear properties, after all. Netflix purposely didn’t include the channels being spun off by the “Discovery” portion of “Warner Bros. Discovery” in its bid. So how long would it tolerate programming HBO linear, rather than forcing those remaining customers to move to digital?
Right now, HBO linear subscribers still get free access to HBO Max — which was part of the promise of HBO Max when it initially launched in 2020. Would Netflix put up with those hybrid linear customers accessing the streamer that way? When it comes to cutting costs in the merger, will Netflix decide having a linear network infrastructure still makes sense, or will it be an easy thing to whack off the spreadsheets and the bottom line?
Just like the sunsetting era of basic cable, the fate of premium cable perhaps had already been sealed no matter what. In 2024, HBO averaged just 154,000 viewers in primetime — down 7% from the previous year, but a huge slide from recent years (including 726,000. in 2017) as viewership continued its migration to streaming.
Netflix launched its original programming efforts in the early 2010s by emulating the HBO model — starting with high-end fare like “House of Cards.” It wanted to out-HBO HBO, and eventually got so big that it went from boutique to warehouse. Now, Netflix has out-broadcast the broadcast networks instead, while HBO remains a high-end bespoke destination, but mostly on HBO Max. Netflix garners a large awards nomination haul thanks to its sheer output volume, but HBO also dominates thanks to its quality curation.
If Netflix does buy Warner Bros., it will be only a matter of time until premium cable dies. HBO would be just one more brand to add to the Netflix’s bulging menu, alongside the WWE, the NFL and more. The narrative of Netflix vs. HBO has ruled over TV discourse, particularly in the awards space, for more than a decade. But now Netflix might not have to be HBO anymore, nor would it have to beat it — instead, it would just consume it.
